In almost all countries in Southeast Asia, a phenomenon called the demographic
bonus or demographic dividend has had a positive impact on economic growth.
This demographic phenomenon has been a constantly debated topic among
policymakers, researchers and other stakeholders. However, a demographic
dividend will not last forever. During this period, the identification of
socio-economic policy instruments that yield the maximum out of the demographic
dividend is a priority. This is a challenging task
for any developing country and Sri Lanka is not an exception.
- According to the trends in the age structure, Sri Lanka is currently
experiencing the first demographic dividend with a large working
age population, which could raise total GDP, if productively employed.
- Some demographers argue that the demographic dividend will last only until 2017 but other analysis
show that it will continue till 2037 as depicted by the above graph.
- Although the percentages of children less than 15 years of age and the elderly population
aged 60+ years of age, respectively equilibrate in 2025, a noticeable decline of the percentage
of working age population is only discernible from 2037, while the child population tends
to stabilize around 15 percent only after 2037.
- This evidence confirms that the duration of the first demographic dividend is 45 years from 1992 to 2037.
Sri Lanka is left with another
23 years if the country desires to
benefit from this historically
produced demographic bonus
- The benefits of the demographic bonus are not
automatic but policy dependent and hence the window
of opportunity to reap the benefits of a large working
population needs to be made use of productively. For
this, investments need to be made with proper analysis
of population dimensions, which ensure sustainable
economic development that will enable the country to
face future demographic challenges.
- The economic gains arising from this dividend can be
realized only if employment opportunities expand as
rapidly as the numbers seeking new jobs. Sri Lanka’s
situation is quite favourable right now since the rate
of unemployment is relatively low.
